Today's post is going to get a bit political. I normally do not like to give out my own personal view point, but I think with so much anger going out between political factions a view point from a Political Science major might help.
I think many of us can agree that the government shutdown was a failure of American politics and in the end only really hurt the American people. I also believe that most people feel that both the Republicans and the Democrats both played a major role in creating the situation that we find ourselves in now. I doubt any person can provide a good argument how the entire situation is just one party's fault. Although, I know people have...just go to Real Clear Politics or here and you will find a ton of articles pointing out that it is all the Republicans faults. I am going to try and point out why the Republicans are not going to suffer at the polls as much as they did in 1996, I want to make it clear that I do believe that both sides had a major part to play in the shut down and that Republicans have/can/will be stupid in the future. There are some articles that do agree both sides are to blame, yet these are few and far between.
What upsets me is how people try and spin everything one way or the other, reading all the articles talking about how the Republicans are going to take a major hit in the elections is just annoying. Mostly because there is no real evidence of this happening, the thing most articles are pointing to is the 1996 shutdown and the next set of elections that followed.
There are a few things many people tend to forget or just don't point out. The 1996 shutdown happened just before the 96 elections and it was still fresh in people's minds. That did not help the Republicans, because they did control the House and the Senate. When the same party can not come up with a budget, it only makes them look bad. It was pretty much a sure lock that the Republicans were going to loose ground in that election and they did.
Fast forward to 2013, where the budget battle shutdown the government. A few major differences, Democrats control the Senate, national elections are not in two weeks, and it is not a presidental election. All these factors will help ease the hurt against the Republicans. What also helped the Democrats in the 1996 election was that Bill Clinton had a positive approval rating at around 54%, while our current President is having trouble breaking 45%, according to RealClearPolitics.com. In turn that means many of the Democrats who were elected into office that year may have been riding President Clinton's coat tails.
That is not where the positives for the Republicans stop at this point, they also face a very friendly states to pick up Senate seats. Let's look at Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball here and look at the Senate Races right now. A very friendly map, currently the Republicans need 6 seats to take over control of the Senate and right now, it looks like it is possible. With pickups in Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia the Republicans would only need to win 3 of the remaining senates. Now, to give the Democrats credit they do have some good odds in Kentucky to unseat Mitch McConnell, he never really crushed the people he was running against. They also have an okay chance to win the open seat in Georgia, but a lot of things would have to fall into place in order to take those Republican seats. The big reason why it will be a big up hill climb in both states is President Obama's approval rating in both. In the end it may come down to do people want to have a Republican vote or a Democrat vote in the senate.
The seats where the Republicans feel they can pick up the at least 3 seats are Arkansas, Alaska, Louisiana, and North Carolina. All four of these states went Republican in the last Presidential Election, and are very high on the list of states the Republicans wish to claim. They do have outside shots in Colorado, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Iowa, but they would have to get some really good candidates to run. The shocker might be Colorado, where Registered Republicans out number Registered Democrats.
The odds of the Republicans picking up the 6 seats in the senate are 60/40 at best, but more likely sits at 50/50 at this point, and the Democrats do have some advantages in Louisiana, Senator Mary Landrieu has survived many Republican challengers, in a very Republican leaning state. In North Carolina with the Republican Party a mess, Senator Kay Hagan has a good chance of keeping her seat.
One of the many places where many people in the media want to point is how the Republicans are going to loose the House because of the shutdown. I can only laugh when I hear people say this, you only have to look at the districts and you will come to realize most districts have become pretty set in their ways. Less then 25 seats voted for one party on the Presidential level and then voted for the other in their house race. Take a look at the House Race ratings, you can see there are less then 10 toss up races and only one seat projected to swap parties. The Democrats have to take 17 seats to take back the House and with only 1 projected to swap and 9 toss up races they would have to win 7 more seats while loosing no other races. If you noticed to the Democrats have a larger number of toss ups then the Republicans, they would have to sweep all the toss ups, take CA-31, and then find 7 more seats. It really does not seem like it is going to happen, and then you have this.
The major white elephant in the room is Obamacare, this is something that is scaring some Democrats. Problems with the Website along with horrible support for the health care law this could become a long term head ache for them, while the shut down was a short term head ache for the Republicans. I think one of my favorite websites has become Enroll-maven, you can see how gummed up the signing up for the health care law has become. I think with the unpopularity of the health care law and the problems with the roll out are just adding to the Democrats problems. Even some Obama friendly media websites are coming out to rain on Obamacare, Go here, and here. In some regards the Democrat base is almost, I stress ALMOST as fractured as the Republicans, mmmm...
The silver lining to the Democrats is the disjointed Republican Party, the moderate old GOP and the young upstart Tea Party side. They don't seem to like each other, and I can tell you this much Sen. Cruz and Sen. McConnell don't see eye to eye all the time. The Tea Party is hurting the Republican in Senate Races and Presidential Races, where they keep pushing in ultra Conservatives into races where they just can't win. Take Delaware/Nevada/Colorado in 2010, all 3 seats should have swapped to the Republicans with ease, but the Tea Party took control of those races and just tossed them out the window. They did the same in Missouri and Indiana in the 2012 election, pushing candidates that look nice to the ultra conservatives, but turn off the general public. The Tea Party, and Sen. Cruz has become a Thorn in the Republicans' side, but they are far from a terrorist like group. I think this is where the Democrats take that silver lining and throw it out the window, read some of these comments.
They have to realize that these people who were voted in, not just in 2010, but again in 2012 do represent a segment of the American people. In the end it is calling the people who voted for them terrorists, and I as an American I am personally offended. The Senate/House/White House is supposed to work together to represent the best interests of EVERYBODY in America, much to both the Republicans and Democrats chagrin this means the Tea Party districts must be involved. The Republicans need to embrace them and the Democrats must reach out to them. If the Democrats could try and reach out to them and NOT call them terrorists they will have a much better chance in elections then the Republican who keep trying to keep them quite.
The end, does this all really matter? People have a very short attention span and it really comes down to what have you done for me lately. I mean how many people remember Benghazi, IRS scandal and crack down on the AP by the Department of Justice. This all happened last year and most people have moved on and don't give it a second thought.
The problem is the both parties are to blame for the shutdown, and I think both sides have to share the blame, I just don't believe the Republicans should have to shoulder all the blame. They are also far from dead come 2014.
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